Lionsgate‘s Michael Jackson biopic Michael, after additional shoots, will not ease down the road but rather boogie this weekend with what’s expected to be a $150 million start at the global box office.
The feature, which carries a $200M production cost, in Lionsgate fashion has foreign sold to mitigate risk, with international distribution in the hands of Universal (sans Japan, which local distrib Kino called dibs on).
The domestic outlook points to what could be a record start for a music performer biopic, ahead of both 2015’s Straight Outta Compton ($60.2M) and Bohemian Rhapsody ($51M), the latter which was produced by Michael producer Graham King. The Antoine Fuqua-directed, John Logan-written Michael came on tracking between $50M-$60M and has since grown to $65M-$70M at 3,900 locations (including 1,600 Imax and premium large format auditoriums).
The Hollywood premiere last night was something spiritual, with rolling cheers and applause throughout the film’s 127-minute running time at the Dolby Theatre. Rather than trot out the talent ahead of the film’s start (a standard practice), King and Fuqua dazzled the packed house of 3,400 with introductions to Jaafar Jackson; the Jackson family including EP and King of Pop’s son Prince Jackson; Nia Long; Colman Domingo; and more.
Overseas, the Michael weekend is being figured between $75M-$80M from 82 markets day-and-date with domestic including UK & Ireland, China, Mexico and Germany. Korea is the one delayed Universal territory and is bowing May 13. Japan will go in June.
The like-for-like comp is 20th Century Fox and GK Films’ four-time Oscar-winning Bohemian Rhapsody, which in like-for-like territories opened to $69M (that pic had Korea in its initial suite in addition to Russia). The Queen biopic also had around $10M in previews built in to its foreign debut. In reported final B.O., Bohemian Rhapsody ended its run at $216.6M domestic, $910.8M worldwide. It just played and played, and with Devil Wears Prada 2 during the first weekend of May followed by New Line’s Mortal Kombat 2, we have a great start to the summer B.O.
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Michael initially was to be released on April 18, 2025, then was pushed to October 3, 2025 before arriving on this weekend. The third act initially included the dramatization of a Jackson accuser; the estate did not have legal clearance to depict the individual, thus the reshoots. Extra footage in the original cut led to Lionsgate committing to an ultimate sequel. I heard the first test screening back in November that included many industry notables was emotional, with an abundance of tears and cheers. One attendee from that screening told me last night, “I sat at the edge of my seat for three hours.” The Jackson estate reportedly funded the $15M additional shoot as they overlooked the fact the accuser couldn’t be dramatized.
Reviews out of the gate on Rotten Tomatoes aren’t good at 33% Rotten, but disregard, for it’s not their business except for Michael and his babies (meaning fans). Audiences have been turned away from screenings around the world and presales have more sparkle than a white glove. Look for Michael to rock with Brazil (where the pic has the second-highest presales for a Uni theatrical release behind Fast X), France, Mexico, the UK and Germany, which is where the King of Pop toured the most.
In fact, Uni held Michael‘s global premiere in Germany from April 10-12 at Berlin’s Uber Eats Music Hall. Theevent, which attracted the entire cast including Miles Teller, Juliano Krue Valdi, KeiLyn Durrel Jones and more, saw 300 creators among the attendees reaching an audience over a half billion. The event boasted screenings of the film in specific languages chosen by attendees, experiential stations with highlights including a stop where fans were able to moonwalk alongside Jaafar Jackson as Michael, or get a chance to be the star themselves at an immersive concert experience. There were also three floors, filled with 30 Michael film- and brand-themed experiences including a Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough green screen stunt where fans could dance along with Jackson. A Magic Mirrors AR experience provided fans with the opportunity to try on their favorite outfit from “Thriller” to “Beat It,” and there was a booth in which fans could record a short video about what the King of Pop’s music means to them. There also were costumes from the pic spanning the Jackson 5, Thriller, Bad, and the Victory Tour eras. All was capped off by a dance party.
In Germany, Imax ticket sales are currently pacing ahead of Super Mario Galaxy Movie.
China is always a flip of the coin in terms of over- or under-indexing. While Jackson was significantly more popular in Japan, older Chinese audiences know about him. The Maoyan score right now is 100K, which is a good number I’m told.
But when Michael moonwalks into Japan, look out. To give an indication of how well the biopic could do, we have to go back to 2009 when Sony had his finale concert movie This Is It, which made $268M WW. Of that number, domestic repped $72M, while Japan delivered a massive $57M.
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Also opening in North America this weekend is IFC’s Over Your Dead Body at 2,000 theaters, Vertical’s Desert Warrior at 1,250 sites and Roadside Attractions’ Fuze, all respectively seeing low-single digits.